Deal or No Deal
Theresa May have lost her deal vote. So the next step is to consider no deal.
No deal gets allot of bad press.
The EU don’t like it these loose control of the UK and it’s revenue sooner.
The UK May government don’t like it because the Withdrawal Treaty is her construct. Her plan. Her vision.
Big business don’t like it because they have to change the way they work and alter work flows and customs tariffs.
Actually the withdrawal treaty is a stepping stone. Around 24 pages of agreement details how to temporarily maintain the status quo of UK membership in the EU until the end of December 2020 - 21 months.
These pages cover agreements to allowing UK and EU expats to retain EU citizenship rights through the transition period.
The Withdrawal Treaty is actually around 590 pages, the rest being all about safeguards and just in case measure - the source of all the issues.
The transition period is the time - 21 months - to allow the UK and EU to negotiate a new trade treaty between the EU and UK.
The EU don’t trust themselves to complete this in time, so need their backstops.
The UK don’t trust the EU to act in good faith, fearing they plan to drag negotiations out until the British give up and remain.
The Irish don’t trust the British to reintroduce partition the island with a hard border.
There has been some Brexit planning.
Forward looking, well run, business always anticipate change and plan to adapt and develop their businesses.
Many non EU businesses and Expats are Living and Working Abroad in the UK and EU already. This will not stop.
EU Brexit for Expats means family and business must plan ahead and consider the way forward with the non EU rules as they are.
New bilateral treaties on trade, travel, social insurance agreements, and Residency May come into force in the coming years, these can be anticipated with what we know today.
Indeed many businesses have already Brexit proofed their business by planning ahead.
Expats in Cyprus and the EU are taking advantage of permanent residency and duel citizenship rules available now.
The UK and EU governments have planned for EU Brexit based around the transition period and beyond that.
Guarantees In Place
The UK have already guaranteed the rights of EU Expats in the UK after Brexit day 29/3/19 even with no deal.
The Cyprus government have reciprocated to UK expats in Cyprus.
Agreements have been put in place by the EU for travel and airlines even with no deal.
The EU have clearly stated their Withdrawal Treaty Option and this hasn’t changed for over 6 months.
All their planning since has been to implement the Transition treaty or for a No Deal scenario.
Many people and institutions are ready for no deals.
So why do we hear in the press people saying ‘No deal would be a disaster’
A bit like chickin lickin one acorn falling is taken to mean the sky is falling in. Repeating a statement often enough can become easy traction and assumed wisdom.
But maybe the emperors of ‘No Deal’ have no substance behind their claims?
Maybe the sky wouldn’t fall in. That a no deal Brexit would be the same, but different. An opportunity?
The EU is not a country. It is a trade organisation. It imposes tariffs on importers from around the world, but member states don’t charge tariffs and restrictions between each other.
Outside the EU there are worldwide trading treaties allowing all countries to apply standard rules between each other. The EU is signed up to these world trade treaties.
The biggest 3 economies in the world - USA, China and Japan trade amount themselves under these world trade rules.
World trade organisation rules could rescue the UK and allow it to continue trading around the world including the EU after a no deal Brexit.
Remember also most family and business within the EU and UK don’t trade cross border. It impacts on Expat family and business for sure.
But there is a rescue remedy for Theresa May and the EU in the event of No Deal.