EU Brexit for Expats: House of Cards?
Sam Orgill of ProACT Partnership considers the background and implications of EU Brexit for Expats Living and Working Abroad
The Clash wondered ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go?’ Indicating a level of indecision with narrow margins. The Jam successors Style Council replied with ‘You don’t have to sit back… you can actually try changin’ it an Walls will come tumbling down’. This was the 70’s angst of the UK as they agonisingly choose to be led into the ECC as it was then.
1950 the ‘European Coal and Steel Community’ was formed for commerce and security.
1957 the founding Treaty of Rome was signed creating the European Economic Community
1973 - Great Britain joined the European Community in 1973, but only in….
1975 did the people get asked in a referendum vote on joining saying ‘qui’ with a 66% yes vote. But much has changed since then; the European Community doesn’t exist anymore!
1987 The Single European Act created the European Economic Area (EEA) with free movement of labour, capital, services and people
1991 Maastricht Treaty created a single currency
1993 -The European Union was only formed in 1993 – Britain didn’t get a say.
2002 The Euro single currency was created.
2007 The Treaty of Lisbon amends and renames the 1991 treaty to the ‘Treaty of European Union’ and the 1957 treaty to ‘The Functioning of the European Union’.
2016 - Fast forward to 2016 and Great Britain votes 52% to leave – an 18% swing. The EU walls come tumbling down, along with political careers, jobs and lifestyles. What went wrong with the relationship between the British and their European Cousins?
England’s Green and Pleasant Lands
Stone Age Britain shows already trade was vibrant across the Celtic world of British Isles and Europe. The Romans followed and established the road network in England and Wales, and the regional capitals of London, Winchester, York, Leicester, Chester and Norwich.
The Huns finished off the Roman Empire. Britain became attractive lands to raid and settle for the German Angles and Saxons, the Vikings from Denmark and Norway, while the ruling classes of England remained entwined with the French. The British were consigned to Wales, and the Scots remained Walled off.
Angland developed its unique language English language, half German, half French, with regional accents derived from the Vikings in the east and north, and French and Germans in the south. England retained control of Calais on the continent until 1558.
EU Brexit Vote to Leave
The EU Referendum Vote to leave means big changes for the UK and the EU. Looking at the time line above, we see the radical changes between the two British referendums, which have caused the swing.
The purpose of the EU has moved from a ‘trading zone for commerce and security’, to a ‘federal European state’. The 6 founding father countries in 1957 became 13 member states that signed the 2007 Lisbon treaty. That number became 28 counties from 2013.
Across Europe stresses shown by the rise of extreme political parties, the economic crisis caused following adoption of the Euro and a rhetoric that castigated the unelected bureaucracy at the centre of the EU unifying bureaucracy.
The UK could now initiate 2 years of negotiations could start for the UK to leave the EU.
Will the EU Walls come Tumbling down?
There is a scenario where the UK renegotiates a win-win Brexit Lite that keeps the UK within the European Economic Area (EEA) withfree movement of labour, capital, services and people like Norway and Switzerland; members of the EU in all but name. If Australia can be allowed into Eurovision; then why not a creative win-win ‘new vision’ for the EU? This would have a minimal impact on expats living and working abroad.
As an alternative, the UK Brexit vote could be more like the Polish revolution of 1989. The Polish Solidarity movement through election and negotiation cast the first stone that collapsed the Soviet Empire. Full Brexit. A political, security and trading community that ran for 75 years. Could other disaffected EU countries move towards an EU Break Up after 66 years? This is the world of the unknown. The world of change.
EU Brexit for Expats
If we look back 100 years, the Austro-Hungarian Empire still existed, and a Tsar was Empire of Russia. Before 1908 you got on your horse, motor cars for the masses only arrived with the Ford model T introduced that year. Powered flight started also meaning that people were no longer tied to live and work within walking distance. Much has changed in security, trade, lifestyle and politics. We are still here, and better off.
The rules will change for the UK and EU whether Brexit Lite or Brexit Full emerges in the coming years. What we know today is:
1. Nothing changes for Expats Living and Working Abroad – in the UK or in the EU.
2. UK is legally bound within the EU law, these will protect the rights of expats
3. Change is inevitable for EU Expats whatever happens. More counties could join. Treaties could Change again.
4. Look at Expats living and working abroad outside the EU, these communities are thriving but with different rules. The world of Expats doesn’t need the EU.
5. British Expats Living and Working Abroad in the EU may consider or be better served by returning to the UK. Some will be unaffected.
6. Global trade and tax rules will still allow ATM’s, Bank Transfers, Double Taxation Treaties, pensions and overseas property ownership to continue. Cyprus and other countries will continue to welcome EU and non EU business investment and tourism.
ProACT Partnership Expat Experts have launched a series of emails for the coming months to follow the latest developments and implications for Expats Living and Working Abroad or investing in overseas property. Alternatively we continue to offer a free review for expats.
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Sam Orgill of ProACT Partnership announces we launch a series of updates on EU Brexit for Expats Living and Working Abroad
The EU Referendum Vote to leave means big changes for the UK and the EU.
Today 2 years of negotiations could start for the UK to leave the EU.
ProACT Partnership Expat Experts will launch a series of email Newsletters Starting Monday 27/6/16 to highlight latest developments and implications for Expats Living and Working Abroad or investing in overseas property.
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Further Updates can be viewed at ProACT Expat Expert Blog - Click Here
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